Sunday, August 4, 2013

Science is a Work in Progress

There is a basic misunderstanding of science in the general public.  People seem to think that when a new study comes out that disproves a previous one, this shows the inadequacy of science to describe the world around us.  This could not be further from the truth.  The ability for science to change and adapt to new information is exactly what makes it such a powerful tool.  Without this ability, science would be useless in describing what we see around us.


Science is the Study of What Can Be Observed

The reality of the universe is that we only know as much as we can observe.  We can't see equations floating in space and time, we see events happening, and can study and record those events.  By collecting enough data, we can work backwards and determine the equations most able to describe our observations.  This means scientists can never be 100% sure their equations are correct.  You can do study after study proving a theory, only to have one set of data that disagrees with all your previous data and completely disproves the original theory.  This is how science works.  This is how science is supposed to work.  Most researchers hope to disprove old theories because it makes their life more interesting, having to work to develop a new theory that incorporates all the data collected.

Science is Perfect.  Theories are Not.

It is because of this that you should never accept anything as absolute fact.  No matter how much data is collected, no matter how many studies are done, science can never be absolutely certain a theory won't be disproved the next day.  This goes for everything we observe, even the most obvious, like gravity.  Pretty much everyone (me included) accept that gravity will work the same way tomorrow as it has every day previously.  There is so much data collected on gravity proving our current equations that just about everyone accepts it as absolute fact.  People don't think gravity is something that can be disproven.  But it is possible that studies into quantum physics will show us that our equations are just slightly off.  Or even more crazy, it is possible that studies will suggest that gravity will go through some sort of weird transformation in one billion years and reverse.  I highly doubt this will happen, but the point is that it could happen.  Our understanding of the universe is only as good as our observations of past events.
Lar Gibbon
Gibbons are thought to be mostly monogamous.
CC Image courtesy of Diego Lapertina on Wikipedia.

Two Competing Studies of Monogamy in Mammals

A recent pair of studies on monogamy in mammals proves the beautiful imperfection of scientific discovery.  Both studies collected all the data they could, analyzed it in great detail, and published two separate studies in the same week that came to opposite conclusions.

The first study, Male infanticide leads to social monogamy in primates, concluded that the long held theory that monogamy arose in primates because males needed to protect the female and offspring from competing males that would kill the child in order to create his own offspring, is true.  Their data supported this theory by showing reduced relative lactation length and increased reproductive rates in primates that were monogamous.  A second study, The Evolution of Social Monogamy in Mammals, concluded that this original theory is false, and monogamy evolved in species where females were spread out so far that males were unable to defend their access to multiple females, and therefor focused their efforts on only one.

When I heard of this conflict, I smiled.  This is what science is all about.  This makes people think, makes people discuss their results and come to a better conclusion.  Obviously both studies aren't both completely correct, though both likely are at least  partially correct.  Time will tell what conclusions both teams of researchers will come to, but it will undoubtedly be better and closer to the truth than either study would have come to on its own.

I am sure many people will hear about this and conclude that science just doesn't know what it is doing, but they are confusing science and data.  Science is a concept based on learning through observation.  You cannot disprove science, it is a perfect concept, like mathematics.  The only part of science that can be disproven are the results and theories.  Keep this in mind the next time you come across a study that seems at odds with everything you thought you knew, or a person trying to use conflicting results to show the weaknesses of science.  

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