Technology Predictions Can Be Tricky

While visiting family this weekend,  I came across an issue of Laptop Magazine from 2007. (It was on the coffee table, still don't know why)  Immediately I pulled it out and took a look at all the latest technology from 2007.  What I found was nothing short of hilarious.  It's not the reviews of outdated laptops that got me, it was all the predictions for the future.  It is truly amazing how quickly technology changes today, because most of the predictions made not only didn't come true, people long forgot about many of these products, some of which were brand new in 2007.

Future Technology Predictions are Destined for Failure

Check out the letter from the editor at the beginning of the magazine and try to pick out all the points where the editor got it wrong:

The Last OS? 

Whether you buy into the hype or not, the arrival of Windows Vista is an important event for two reasons. First, the operating system offers several features you should know about, ones that will make you more productive and let you do more with your media. The other reason is more historical; this is, in all likelihood, the last traditional OS as we know it before the Internet becomes the backbone of all computing.

I've been using Vista for the past few months and can say that it's certainly slicker and more secure than Windows XP.  Microsoft deserves credit for grouping settings and tasks together in a more logical fashion, as well as doing a better job of anticipating the way you work. A perfect example is the contextually sensitive menu in Explorer that lets you e-mail a given file, share it, or burn it to a disc wits a single click. You can also tag, caption, and perform basic edits on photos within the Gallery without any menu digging.

Since Vista's biggest strength is the way it saves you time, we thought it appropriate to cut to the chase and grade what we consider the OS' ten best features for notebook users. We've also rounded up six dual-core notebooks under $I,000, all of which possess the multitasking horsepower and memory required to run Vista smoothly (yes, including the Aero interface). Want to upgrade your XP system to run Vista? This month's how-to section provides step-by-step instructions on loading the OS, as well as on bumping up the RAM on your laptop.

Even if Google hasn't yet developed its own operating system, it's safe to say that the company's myriad programs and services firmly point to a Web-based future. Our 101 tips will help you do everything better with Google, from searching and shopping to organizing your photos and sharing your calendar. You could make the argument that Google's sheer ambition has spread the company too thin, but as it continues to integrate more of its services—and migrate more of them to cell phones—Microsoft and its still-nebulous Live initiative may not be able to keep up.

Has MySpace become the Microsoft of social networking? That's the question our story on niche communities like Imbee and Eons (based on your age) and Zebo (based on what you own) attempts to answer. The premise makes sense; people want to connect with others based on their interests, not just because other people are doing it. On the other hand, it may be difficult for these more targeted sites to stand out.

The types of Web-based services that excite me most are those that take the complexity out of things we normally don't even bother attempting. Sharpcast Photos (reviewed on page 104), enables camera phone users to automatically sync the pictures they take to their desktop, Web page, or online album—no uploading required.  Documents, music, and videos are next. If Google (or Microsoft) is smart, it will snatch up this company before I finish writing this sentence.

NOTE: This is not trying to be an insult to the editor, as at the time all these predictions seemed reasonable, but to point out how quickly the world can change, and change in a way no one predicted. 

Windows Vista Didn't Live Up to the Hype

The first paragraph is particularly funny because of how utterly terrible Windows Vista turned out to be.  The editor was also bold enough to predict, even in the title of the letter, "The Last OS?" that Windows Vista would be the last operating system that wasn't based on the internet.  Not only was Windows Vista not the last hard drive-based operating system, there really aren't any truly web-based operating systems out except Open WebOS, which was recently acquired by LG to be used in their Smart TVs.  

Google Has Grown by Leaps and Bounds

The part about the possibility of Google being stretched too thin also made me laugh because of the amount of companies and services Google has acquired and started since 2007, and the massive growth in their operating income over the same time frame.  In 2007, Google's operating income was $16.6 billion and total assets were $25.3 billion.  In 2012 Google's operating income was $46 billion with total assets of $93.8 billion, a 277% and 371% increase respectively.  In the past six and a half years, Google has purchased the following companies:

• Bought DoubleClick for $3.1 billion
• Bought GrandCentral for $50 million (turned into Google Voice)
• Bought On2 Technologies for $106.5 million
• Bought Aardvark for $50 million
• Bought Global IP Solutions
• Bought AdMob
• Bought Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion
• Bought Quickoffice
• Bought Channel Intelligence for $125 million
• Bought Waze for $966 million

In the same time, Google has also been involved with the following projects:

• Partnered with GeoEye and launched a high-res ground imaging satellite
• Started Google Energy and began investing in renewable energy projects
• Announced the Android mobile operating system and grew it to be the most popular mobile operating system in the world

  

  Since 2007, Google has started a number of
  projects, including developing driverless cars.
  CC photo courtesy of Steve Jurvetson
  on Wikipedia.

• Released the Chrome web browser, now the third most popular browser
• Released Chromecast, a $35 streaming media dongle for any HDMI-capable TV
• Gmail finally became available to the general public
• Became and was later removed as the default Maps app for Apple iOS
• Added Street View to Google Maps
• Started Google Fiber, a broadband internet service provider that supplies internet speeds up to 100 times faster than normal broadband
• Started researching and developing autonomous cars that can drive themselves without human interaction

Social Networking Looks Nothing Like it Did

MySpace was the big social networking site in 2007.  Now it is a footnote (though is still hanging in there, with the help of Justin Timberlake).  Imbee, a social networking site for tweens, is now Fanlala, but unless you have a pre-teen girl in your house, I doubt you have ever heard of it.  Eons, a social networking site for baby boomers, never gained popularity and shut down in June 2012.  Zebo, a social networking site for online shoppers, disappeared sometime after 2007.  I tried to research it, but the latest anything on the internet I could find on Zebo was from 2007 about how great it is.  After that, nothing.  No articles about how it died, no Wikipedia article about it, no anything.  Zebo.com no longer exists.  A search for "What happened to Zebo.com" provides me this helpful answer on Answers:

"zebo was re-found by his alien friends and went to there planet and died of an intolerance to alkalies."

I don't think this is what I am looking for. 

In the place of MySpace and the other social networking failures is Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Google+, none of which had anywhere near the popularity they do now.

One Last Prediction Falls Short

At least Sharpcast Photos still exists (now SugarSync).  This is actually a good product, but for whatever reason, was never acquired by one of the larger technology companies.  Even with a product as good as SugarSync appears to be, its only a matter of time before their are either swallowed up by one of the giants like Google or are pushed into bankruptcy by a dwindling customer base.  I guess if you are a very slow reader, that... last... sentence... might... still... hold... true...

Nope.